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Old 01-08-2010, 12:58 PM   #121
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Hmm, I disagree with you on this one Mastermind. While it is true that homicide 'clearance' rates have dropped since 1985 you seem to assume all charged were guilty when as we all know that is not the case
That is offset by the number of homicides that are missing persons cases, and faked suicides, and jursidictional issues. Jurisdictional issues alone might make the homiced clearance rate even lower. How many murders that happened in the DC area got pushed to Prince Georges County and Northern Virginia by fudging the jurisdictional and border issues? How many murders and crimes in in the city of New York were not acreddited to the NYPD because they barely fit in New Jersey or NY state jursidictions.


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Rather Corky was trying to make the point offenders even now seem to be oblivious to the fact that the towers can track in a relative distance where their cell phone is in relation to a crime scene at the time of a given crime
Aren't disposable cell phones destroying that capability?

Most "for-profit /for cause criminals" are using stolen and disposable cell phones.

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To be honest, I feel Corky underestimates how much people get away with these days. That said, I will say prosecutors seem a lot more willing to try cases on nothing
All that being said, the majority of criminals are caught.
You committ a crime, your more likely to get caught that go free. That's been the case regardless of what time period you live in.

Just think about how easy it was too catch criminals in Victorian London. No miranda, looser court system, more empowered cops. The downside is that they probably arrested a lot of innocent people.
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Old 01-08-2010, 01:55 PM   #122
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Hey Mastermind, yes the victorian London cops, kind of like an old fashioned version of the Chicago PD. You know, just go on a massive arrest sweep and hope the guilty person is among those arrested and if he does not confess just beat him until he does. Sadly this still goes on too often, particularly in Chicago which is so corrupt, well the state of Illinois in general is highly corrupt but Chicago is the worst of the worst. I could put a few other jurisdictions on my own personal crap list.
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Old 01-09-2010, 04:37 PM   #123
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Originally Posted by Mastermind
What are you talking about? People still are getting away with crimes.
No ****, Mastermind. That's not what I was getting at.

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Originally Posted by Mastermind
1. Cell phones? Your killer is not going to sit idly and just let you make call to the police. It also hasn;t stopped people from getting killed in their homes, where they have a phone more than readily available.


Yes cell phones. Especially in relation to the Tim McClure case. I know if I had been hanging out in Reno, perhaps a little tipsy while gambling, and I saw a 6'6" dude walking around with a mullet in a tux...I'M SNAPPING A PHOTO. Then...later...when the cops are trying to verify his alibi of is he where he says he is...or was he with his mom somehwere he says he wasn't...


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2. DNA. It will shock you how many murder scenes have no DNA present. Gun murders from a distance especially don;t leave DNA.
And....your point is?? Is it really your contention that DNA has not helped the police and the prosecutors find, and exclude, criminals to an extent almost unimagineable just 25 years ago?



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3. Video Cameras- just went through the projects in DC and Balto and saw a bunch of kids throwing stones at the security cameras laid out in the streets. Plus why should criminals worry about cameras, when they always had to worry about eyeball witnesses all the time in pre-1985.
Yes...why would anyone worry about ATM cameras, traffic cameras, or video store cameras? Why would any criminal ever worry about a taped record of where they were at a particular time that their defense couldn't dispute, discredit, or intimidate? Do you ever watch First 48 or Forensic Files? So many times they not only can confirm or refute alibis, they can find suspects and have witnesses ID them when no mug shot exists in their records.



Jesus man. I was just making an offhand comment on how much technology has leapfrogged in the past 25 years. enabling prosecution of the guilty, and you took at as some sort of challenge. Why I don't know.


@kadrmas15: I probably do underestimate just how much people get away with, you're probably right about that. I will admit to being amazed sometimes when NONE of the above technology has been able to nab a bad guy. For example: I am floored that the EAR/ONS is still unidentified, or that that Drew Peterson guy was able to get rid of so many wives.

Also, since you usually explain things in an intelligent and well-supported mannor, support this opinion please: ...prosecutors seem a lot more willing to try cases on nothing but conjecture which is disturbing and unconstitutional in my opinion as it does not even come close to meeting the burden of proof.
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Old 01-09-2010, 05:04 PM   #124
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Homicide departments clearance rates are worse today than they were pre-1985
Please cite your source. The murder rate has steadily declined in the past decade and in fact 2009 saw it plummet to a 36 year low so I hope whatever source you have isn't skewing the numbers.
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Old 01-09-2010, 05:15 PM   #125
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Well, it is not that difficult to explain Corky. I mean, they (prosecutors) often try cases on nothing but conjecture. It is not supposed to be enough to suspect that a person did something or to even think that a person did something in order to convict them if you are on a jury. Not only that but at least in theory, a prosecutor if they are going file charges against a person they honestly have to believe that the person is responsible for what they are accused of.

Now granted, maybe a majority of the time the prosecutor really does believe they have the right person. I do not doubt this. However prosecutors more and more are trying weak, circumstantial cases that are not just a little circumstantial, they are ENTIRELY circumstantial. The problem with this approach and with circumstantial cases in general but particularly when the case is entirely circumstantial is that it is just too easy to twist and manipulate things to fit a prosecutor's 'theory' of what happened in a given case.

Now in terms of Drew Peterson, do I personally think he killed at least one of his wives? Yes. The difference there though, at least in the case of Wife no. 3 the one who 'drowned' in an empty bath tub was there evidence to prove that his wife did not drown. There was no water in her lungs, the bath tub was empty, she was beaten severely and I believe strangled to death. You have to remember too, Stacy was Drew's alibi, Drew the 49 year old cop at that time, was having an affair with Stacy who then was 17, going on 18 years old. You have to remember, Drew and his 3rd wife Kathleen while separated were not formally divorced. Her death was ruled an accidental drowning by a coroner's jury, one of the members of that jury was a retired cop who knew Drew Peterson and felt Drew was a 'good guy'. So basically Drew got full custody of he and wife no. 3's two sons being that his wife was dead, plus Drew collected on the life insurance because the death was ruled an accident. Now I believe the boys were officially the beneficiaries of the insurance money, not Drew, but because they were minor children, Drew got to oversee the money.

Now, to get more into this case briefly. Drew's alibi for why he could not have been present when wife no. 3 died, the woman who was his mistress at the time and went on to be wife no. 4 disappeared in 2008. Anyway, I think Stacy was going to divorce Drew, so I think that was part of his motive for getting rid of her, but another reason was that I think Drew was afraid Stacy would change her story and implicate him in his 3rd wife's death. So he decided to take the chance and get rid of her, figuring if he disposed of the body he would not be charged. I do not expect Drew to ever be charged with Stacy's death unless her body is found because there is no physical evidence to point towards a homicide.

But anyway, the one thing Drew did not count on was that Stacy had told her Pastor things in private counseling that while under old law it could not have been admitted but under a hearsay law passed in Illinois in 2007, hearsay from a dead person could be admitted as evidence if a person killed another person to prevent that person from testifying. I do think if Drew Peterson is convicted in this case that it will be overturned on appeal later as the Supreme Court reached a decision a couple years ago in Giles v. California that ruled that that kind of hearsay should not be admitted because it does not allow the person who said the hearsay to be cross examined by defense attorney's because the person is either dead or cannot be found.

I will get more into my opinions on this later. But if you have a specific question or questions Corky just ask and I will be happy to sure. What about my specific opinion do you want to know more about?
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Old 01-09-2010, 05:17 PM   #126
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Corky I have seen those numbers too. Mastermind is actually right in the regard that homicide clearance rates are at the lowest levels ever. Or certainly the lowest they have been in decades. While it is true homicide fell to their lowest level since the mid 1980's, that does not mean that the total number of homicides and the number of cleared homicides are intertwined. They are in fact two very different things. Two very different statistics.
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Old 01-09-2010, 05:44 PM   #127
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Originally Posted by kadrmas15
Corky I have seen those numbers too. Mastermind is actually right in the regard that homicide clearance rates are at the lowest levels ever. Or certainly the lowest they have been in decades. While it is true homicide fell to their lowest level since the mid 1980's, that does not mean that the total number of homicides and the number of cleared homicides are intertwined. They are in fact two very different things. Two very different statistics.

No doubt. However unscrupulous folks could base one statistic off of the other just to skew figures to fit their particular viewpoint.

Thanks for explaining what you meant.
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Old 01-09-2010, 06:05 PM   #128
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Hey Corky sorry, I hope I did not come off as cocky because that is not how I meant to be. But I will get more into my prosecutor theories later if you are interested? I always like your questions and opinions.
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Old 01-09-2010, 11:28 PM   #129
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Jesus man. I was just making an offhand comment on how much technology has leapfrogged in the past 25 years. enabling prosecution of the guilty, and you took at as some sort of challenge. Why I don't know
I think you need to read your own posts, more.

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ease cite your source. The murder rate has steadily declined in the past decade and in fact 2009 saw it plummet to a 36 year low so I hope whatever source you have isn't skewing the numbers.
And yet, Camden, NJ, East St. Louis and Philadelphia have become blood baths.

National murder rates mean nothing,. You have to track the murder rate of a city from year to year to get an idea of how crime prevention is working.

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No doubt. However unscrupulous folks could base one statistic off of the other just to skew figures to fit their particular viewpoint.

Thanks for explaining what you meant.
Sadly, the unscrupulous folks, tend to to be the police. When jobs are on the line and results matter, there are a myriad of ways you can make murders or violent crime not show up on the stats.
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Old 01-09-2010, 11:39 PM   #130
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I should also point out that one of the things that makes crimes statistics so misleading is that if crime is high one year, it is naturally going to tend to be lower the next year.

1. The criminls that committed the crimes are usually caught and hence no longer able to do next years crimes.

2. Higher crime rates usually resolve in police being more active and potentially more succesfull. Hence also reducing the crime rate.

3. A person who killed his gilfriend and got away with it, is already satisified in doing the murder and may not feel the need to kill anyone else the next year. The drug lord that killed his competition this year, may have no need (or competition ) to deal with the next year.

4. Higher crime rates also lead to more vigilant civilians. People less likely to go visit ATMS, more likely to stay in, etc.

5. If a criminal sees a lot of police on the street a year later, he may just decide to wait it out a while (like the year after) for the police to die down and then resume his activities.
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Old 01-19-2010, 01:43 PM   #131
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I would like to know on what basis McClure's case was dismissed WITH PREJUDICE despite the lack of even an attempt at a trial. Whose decision was it to dismiss it with prejudice? I don't know enough about what determines whether a case, pre-trial, is dismissed with or without prejudice.

I think the single biggest thing - among several - that is a problem for McClure is that credit card cancellation note. Presumably, notes kept by someone sitting at a call center are roughly in date order - i.e., notes are taken in the order in which calls are received. Therefore, I would imagine the note was found with a bunch of other stuff dated Friday, and had probably been kept in that order since it was taken. McClure can say it was Monday, but I'd give the odds on his telling the truth on that point at about 100 to 1.
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Old 01-19-2010, 04:22 PM   #132
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I think the single biggest thing - among several - that is a problem for McClure is that credit card cancellation note. Presumably, notes kept by someone sitting at a call center are roughly in date order - i.e., notes are taken in the order in which calls are received. Therefore, I would imagine the note was found with a bunch of other stuff dated Friday, and had probably been kept in that order since it was taken.
1. Shouldn;t there be a phone record of when the call took place? Why hasn;t that record been found and used?

2. I'm assuming this was done before calls were recorded for quality assurance?
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Old 01-19-2010, 04:57 PM   #133
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1. Shouldn;t there be a phone record of when the call took place? Why hasn;t that record been found and used?

2. I'm assuming this was done before calls were recorded for quality assurance?
Considering that this took place back in 1983, I'm pretty sure phone systems back then were a lot simpler compared to now. I highly doubt all phone calls were recorded back then.
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Old 02-12-2010, 05:38 PM   #134
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Just weird that the wife wasn't talking here. Also another point is that Tim and his wife gambled after their wedding with their PARENTS. Would his wife's parents be able to verify that he was there all night and that he sent his mother off?

A lot of weird things here. Hard to pinpoint to be honest
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Old 02-13-2010, 07:22 AM   #135
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Just weird that the wife wasn't talking here.
now that's an excellent point I haven't thought of. Really, why *didn't* we hear from the wife? Being that Tim claimed he was with her most of the night, she is a crucial part to his alibi. Perhaps she didn't interview quite as well as Tim, ROFL! I could only imagine what her interview would have been like.
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