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Old 07-28-2009, 09:11 PM   #1
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Cool Researcher predicts TV's newest hits

http://www.adweek.com/aw/content_dis...56b1ab150fc811

Researcher Sees Hits in 'NCIS: L.A.,' 'Leno'
The Cleveland Show, Flash Forward, Trauma and Vampire Diaries also look good, per NewMediaMetrics
July 28, 2009

- Anthony Crupi

NEW YORK While the fall TV season is still a good two months down the road, a New York-based research company already has a bead on which new shows are likely to break out in 2009-10.

After subjecting the fall slate to a comprehensive review, NewMediaMetrics’ predictive analysis suggests that CBS’ NCIS: Los Angeles should scare up big ratings Tuesday nights at 9 p.m., while NBC’s Jay Leno Show could prove to be a powerhouse at 10 p.m., particularly on Tuesday nights.

Also promising are: ABC’s Flash Forward, which leads off the network’s Thursday night lineup; NBC’s Monday 9 p.m. hospital drama, Trauma; Fox’s Family Guy spin-off The Cleveland Show, Sunday at 8:30 p.m.; and the CW’s Vampire Diaries, which will hold down the Thursday 8 p.m. time slot.

Other new series flagged by NewMediaMetrics are ABC’s The Forgotten, the Fox musical comedy Glee and the one-two punch of Cougar Town and Eastwick, which will cap ABC’s Wednesday night lineup beginning this fall.

Including the mid-season replacements V and Happy Town, ABC boasts nine of the top 20 new shows, per NMM’s analysis. This season marks the fifth in which the researcher has predicted the outcome of the fall schedule; last year, NMM’s picks resulted in an 86.4 percent accuracy rate.

NMM’s success rate has been steady since it first began calling the outcome of the fall broadcast season back in 2005. That year, the company correctly predicted that Fox’s Prison Break and CBS’ Criminal Minds would be break-out hits, while giving low marks to the largely forgotten NBC ensemble drama Inconceivable and Fox’s Head Cases, which was yanked after just two episodes.

Of the projected top 20 new shows, six are either spin-offs (such as NCIS: L.A., The Cleveland Show) or revisitations of long-ago properties (V, Melrose Place, Eastwick). Meanwhile, Leno is the fall schedule’s “known unknown.” The host is a familiar property, having helmed The Tonight Show for 17 years, although the new format remains something of an enigma.

In addition to the Tuesday night Leno, NMM believes the variety show will get traction on Thursday nights as well. (Certainly, the Thursday shows will benefit from a wealth of high-profile film talent, as the studios will look to trot out their A-listers on the night before their films open.)
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Old 07-28-2009, 09:23 PM   #2
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I hope they're right about Jay Leno's new show.
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Old 07-28-2009, 09:34 PM   #3
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somehow i think leno will do ok i dont think it will be the massave failure that some people think it will be but i just dont see it being buzzworthy ether sure there will be the sampling the first 2 weeks or so but after that it will be a modest prime time preformer at best not the breakout turn the fortunes around hit that nbc is looking for
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Old 07-28-2009, 09:37 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 70s show watcher
somehow i think leno will do ok i dont think it will be the massave failure that some people think it will be but i just dont see it being buzzworthy ether sure there will be the sampling the first 2 weeks or so but after that it will be a modest prime time preformer at best not the breakout turn the fortunes around hit that nbc is looking for
Compared to the rest of NBC's lineup it'll probably look pretty good. lol
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Old 07-29-2009, 03:07 AM   #5
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Compared to the rest of NBC's lineup it'll probably look pretty good. lol
thats for sure you know i may be wrong though i remember way back in 1994 i made some tv predicitons and while i was right about er and touched by an angel hacing long runs i said that daddys girls starring dudley moore would be a big hit and that some other new show would fail you may have heard of the show it aired thursday nights on nbc and it was called friends yes i picked daddys grls over friends shows you what i know
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Old 07-29-2009, 04:56 PM   #6
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Interesting article. I think NCIS:LA will obviously do well, probably very similar to The Mentalist's old numbers (around 15 million). Putting Leno as a hit is a surprise, though. I really think his new show could turn up some surprising numbers on a regular basis. Tuesday and Friday nights will probably be his best - With only The Forgotten and The Good Wife airing against it, any viewer looking for general comedy could tune in. The great thing about Leno is that he has mass appeal. Even if you didn't watch him on The Tonight Show you could easily watch him at 10pm. Airing against all dramas every night of the week is a good thing.

The season is full of many wildcards. I am surprised Modern Family isn't included - it will probably be the breakout hit of ABC's comedy lineup if there is one. All the critics seem to like it, and ABC has been giving it the most attention. Shows like Eastwick, The Forgotten, Trauma, and Glee all seem like tossups.
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Old 07-29-2009, 05:12 PM   #7
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I know it'll be in it's third season, but I'm surprised it's not predicted that it could possibly become one of the biggest shows on television following Two and a Half Men this fall. In repeats this summer, it's already getting 100% retention in A18-49 following "Men," isn't it? We saw the show hit over 12 million when it aired there one night in February. I'm sure it'll do even better than that in the fall!
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Old 07-29-2009, 05:38 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ryan423
I know it'll be in it's third season, but I'm surprised it's not predicted that it could possibly become one of the biggest shows on television following Two and a Half Men this fall. In repeats this summer, it's already getting 100% retention in A18-49 following "Men," isn't it? We saw the show hit over 12 million when it aired there one night in February. I'm sure it'll do even better than that in the fall!
Amazingly enough, BBT built on the Men demo on Monday night by a point, the first time it has ever done that. It's viewer retention has been an average 93% so far. So, if Men can continue getting 15 million viewers, BBT would be getting 14 million viewers, if the repeats are anything to follow.
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Old 07-30-2009, 04:04 PM   #9
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The Cleveland show will get high ratings for the first few episodes, then they will plummet, but stay on the air because Fox doesn't want to piss off their 100 million dollar man Seth McFarlane, so it will be just like American Dad
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