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Old 12-21-2014, 12:45 AM   #136
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The odds of that guy in the picture being EAR are next to nothing. Apparently we have one surviving photo of that meeting so naturally there's a desperation to make it more meaningful than it ever was. The idea that we see mostly women in the picture and therefore one of the few guys stands out as unusual is similar to creative prosecutors who are so desperate to lazily solve a case that all of a sudden anything becomes suspicious, even perfectly normal variables like life insurance. Last night I watched a Forensic Files episode of a black guy who lost 5.5 years of his life simply because he happened to ride his bicycle in front of a recent crime scene late at night. A simpleton police officer pulled him over and naturally a creative prosecutor found reason to suspect him and eventually charge him.
Oh, shut the hell up Awsi.

Considering that police believe he was actually in the audience that night (which is where that picture was from) the odds are a lot greater than you think. Notice your opinion is in the minority? Think about that.

I swear to God, if you weren't allowed to mention Las Vegas, gambling and "odds" in your posts, your post count would be about 12.

Want to know what's desperate? Comparing me to a prosecutor and police officer who helped wrongfully imprison a guy for 5 years.

Dude, your heyday was a long time ago. Perhaps 8 years ago, you could have made a stupid joke on the forum and people would suck it up like a sponge, but those days have LONG since past. Notice your return here as gone largely unheralded? Get a clue.

And by the way, regarding your ABSURD (not to mention disrespectful) post on Ronald Reagan and how unlikely it was he kept track of how many lives he saved: it's called a running tally. Look into it. People do it all the time. Perhaps your post would get better mileage on Democratic Underground, where crazy conspiracy theories are the norm there.

EPIC FAIL!
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Old 12-21-2014, 02:05 AM   #137
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Awsi, I don't think the likelihood is really so low. LE is pretty confident that EAR was in the audience and that he followed the man who claimed he would be ready for a home intruder home from that meeting. If the man in the picture was ever identified, he would certainly have his DNA tested rather than simply thrown into jail right away because of his presence at the meeting. Considering how cold this case is, no stone should be left unturned. LE is nearly certain he was there and we have a photograph of a man who seems to be alone and out of place at that same location. Does that make him guilty? Of course not. A possible person of interest? Yes. If they can find this man and prove he's not EAR, fine. But at least the possibility will have been ruled out by way of evidence rather than by dismissal because of unlikelihood.
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Old 12-22-2014, 11:01 AM   #138
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Oh, shut the hell up Awsi...
Oh, come on. It's the holidays. Can you kiss and make up already? This feud is really tiresome. If you really hate him that much, you can block him. I blocked cocytus back in the day and it did wonders for my blood pressure. Look into it!

FWIW, if there are 500 people at the meeting, 50% of them men, and if we assume EAR/ONS was there - which I believe he was - that's a one in 250 chance that any given guy at the meeting is the perp. That's a .004 chance. If we had photos of the entire crowd, the chance would never approach zero - but it's still pretty small.

I think there are too many disparate composites to make a definite identification, and you'd need good old fashioned police work to make it happen. I personally think tracking down the people at the meeting is one of the best shots we have at finding the killer, but it would also take a ton of work, and therefore, the chances don't look very good. We'd need better luck in this case!
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Old 12-22-2014, 12:43 PM   #139
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Okay, who wants to join hands and sing Kumbayah with me?

Anyone?

Interesting theories by all. I will have to read this book. For now, I'm staying silent. Shocking, I know. But I agree with nohwheregirl... it's Christmas, y'all! (Unless there's trolls around. Then I can't promise to keep the peace. )
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Old 12-22-2014, 07:14 PM   #140
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One amusing aspect I remember about this book is that the author was quite old for a first time author, and therefore he hadn't previously exhausted all of his biases in earlier works. That's a normal tendency among all writers. If you have something to say you get it out there early, your political slant, etc.

This guy was so determined to catch up in that regard that he threw in invented dialog from the old days in chapter after chapter. I was turning the page in anticipation of the next pot shot at the ACLU, or similar. He seldom let me down.

Let me emphasize there's nothing wrong with that. Very typical in general writings. It was merely out of place for a writer of that age, and in a true crime book.

BTW, I was being extremely conservative when I estimated that the odds of that guy in the picture being EAR were next to nothing. If we found ten more pictures of that meeting there would be at least 10 more potential suspects, all of them resembling one sketch or another. Everybody is desperate to solve these things, as opposed to more valuable slicing of the logical suspect pool in half, and then in half again...
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Old 12-22-2014, 10:43 PM   #141
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Okay, who wants to join hands and sing Kumbayah with me?

Anyone?

Interesting theories by all. I will have to read this book. For now, I'm staying silent. Shocking, I know. But I agree with nohwheregirl... it's Christmas, y'all! (Unless there's trolls around. Then I can't promise to keep the peace. )
Maybe EAR/ONS was actually a poltergeist.
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Old 12-23-2014, 12:02 AM   #142
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Maybe EAR/ONS was actually a poltergeist.
The search for EAR/ONS makes me think of this little gem. I loved that RS didn't take himself TOO seriously.
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Old 12-23-2014, 03:36 AM   #143
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Granted, since that photo is from the area and in real time, it does hold greater chance to contain the EAR's likeness than let's say a current photo of a Burger King crowd in Rhode Island.

If we're talking about a Walmart in Rhode Island, I go with Walmart.

For some reason this topic reminds me of the old classic TV series, "The Fugitive." Gerard would have Kimble cornered in some small dusty town. But as soon as Kimble scampered around the corner and was briefly out of sight, Gerard would shout in frustration, stop in his tracks, give up, and go back to sitting behind his desk. Apparently there was greater capture potential by awaiting the next call than by continuing to pursue around that corner.
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Old 12-23-2014, 05:27 AM   #144
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FWIW, if there are 500 people at the meeting, 50% of them men, and if we assume EAR/ONS was there - which I believe he was - that's a one in 250 chance that any given guy at the meeting is the perp. That's a .004 chance. If we had photos of the entire crowd, the chance would never approach zero - but it's still pretty small.

I think there are too many disparate composites to make a definite identification, and you'd need good old fashioned police work to make it happen. I personally think tracking down the people at the meeting is one of the best shots we have at finding the killer, but it would also take a ton of work, and therefore, the chances don't look very good. We'd need better luck in this case!
If you study the photo closely, it's pretty obvious well over half of the people in the photo are women. Which makes sense since all of his victims up to that point were women.

I feel that the composite sketches closely resemble one another. None of them look exactly alike, but they're all relatively close. Young guy, blonde hair, reasonably attractive, etc., which matches the guy in the photo.

I'm not too concerned with odds. The odds of people winning the lottery are like one in millions, but people do win the lottery. Happens all the time. Basically put: the guy in the photo I was talking about may not be ONS/EAR. Or he could be.

Perhaps an even better example would be supposed statistics guru Nate Silver. This is the man that gave Harry Reid a 14% chance of winning his last senate race (this was on the morning of the election) and Heidi Heitkamp an even lesser chance of winning her contest. Both of them won. And yet, there are still a large number of people that will gladly lick his boots. My predictions: Last month, I nailed every race but one, an annoying small loss in New Hampshire. But I remain unknown while everyone bows before Nate Silver.

Such is life.
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Old 04-17-2015, 02:39 AM   #145
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I always thought the attack on Janelle Cruz in 1986 was a weird outlier. All of his other known attacks were in the 70's and early 80's. His next to last attack was on Mr. and Mrs. Sanchez, and it was theorized that Mr. Sanchez managed to do some damage on him before he and his wife perished. I think, most of his prior victims (if not all) were white. Being that Sanchez is a Hispanic name and assuming that ONS was injured during that attack, do you think he developed a hatred for Hispanic persons? I say that because the only other attack after that was Cruz, which is also a Hispanic name, although I believe Janelle was white?

Just a wild theory, but what do y'all think?

Also, here's that pic I was talking about. Look at the guy in the lower right. Not only does he look like some of the composites, but my perception is that he is out of place here. Most of the rest of the audience is females. What few males you do see seem to be with other women who are presumably their wives. He seems to be the odd man out, and you really have to wonder.
You're clueless. That picture was NOT of the infamous Town Hall meeting in which EAR followed his next victims home. There is NO picture of that particular meeting in existence. Awsi is correct. There's about as good a chance as finding EAR-ONS in a Burger King in Rhode Island as there is in searching random photos taken during the 70's.

Re: Sanchez and Domingo, they were NOT married. Further, there is NO evidence whatsoever that EAR-ONS was injured by Sanchez in any way, shape, or form. NOT one piece of forensic evidence turned up to give that theory any credence.

Your "Hispanic" theory is just plain ridiculous. Not even worth talking about.

Perhaps you should bone up on this case before you start criticizing others because you know dick about the crimes committed by the unidentified serial rapist/killer East Area Rapist/Original Night Stalker.
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Old 04-17-2015, 02:43 AM   #146
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Oh, shut the hell up Awsi.

Considering that police believe he was actually in the audience that night (which is where that picture was from) the odds are a lot greater than you think. Notice your opinion is in the minority? Think about that.

I swear to God, if you weren't allowed to mention Las Vegas, gambling and "odds" in your posts, your post count would be about 12.

Want to know what's desperate? Comparing me to a prosecutor and police officer who helped wrongfully imprison a guy for 5 years.

Dude, your heyday was a long time ago. Perhaps 8 years ago, you could have made a stupid joke on the forum and people would suck it up like a sponge, but those days have LONG since past. Notice your return here as gone largely unheralded? Get a clue.

And by the way, regarding your ABSURD (not to mention disrespectful) post on Ronald Reagan and how unlikely it was he kept track of how many lives he saved: it's called a running tally. Look into it. People do it all the time. Perhaps your post would get better mileage on Democratic Underground, where crazy conspiracy theories are the norm there.

EPIC FAIL!
It's amazing somebody as ignorant as yourself can be so critical of others.

Re: gambling...it's the finest thing a man can do IF HE'S GOOD AT IT. And Awsi is one of the best. You have no idea. Super skilled guy. He's a SHARK. And you are the ultimate fish.
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Old 04-17-2015, 03:00 AM   #147
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It's amazing somebody as ignorant as yourself can be so critical of others.

Re: gambling...it's the finest thing a man can do IF HE'S GOOD AT IT. And Awsi is one of the best. You have no idea. Super skilled guy. He's a SHARK. And you are the ultimate fish.
well you're two peas in a pod.

Yes, gambling is performed by all the great pillars of society.
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Old 04-17-2015, 03:01 AM   #148
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Originally Posted by SiberianKiss
You're clueless. That picture was NOT of the infamous Town Hall meeting in which EAR followed his next victims home. There is NO picture of that particular meeting in existence. Awsi is correct. There's about as good a chance as finding EAR-ONS in a Burger King in Rhode Island as there is in searching random photos taken during the 70's.

Re: Sanchez and Domingo, they were NOT married. Further, there is NO evidence whatsoever that EAR-ONS was injured by Sanchez in any way, shape, or form. NOT one piece of forensic evidence turned up to give that theory any credence.

Your "Hispanic" theory is just plain ridiculous. Not even worth talking about.

Perhaps you should bone up on this case before you start criticizing others because you know dick about the crimes committed by the unidentified serial rapist/killer East Area Rapist/Original Night Stalker.
If you're so educated on this case, prove me wrong then.
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Old 04-17-2015, 03:13 AM   #149
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If you're so educated on this case, prove me wrong then.
I already did. Or do you not understand English?
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Old 04-17-2015, 03:39 AM   #150
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My ignore list is growing. Some people just have nothing useful to contribute.
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