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Old 09-15-2017, 01:46 AM   #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dynoguy88
To piggyback off Kari Lynn Nixon but in a different direction; I'm in the extreme minority here who doesn't trash her father endlessly for asking her to pick up chips and soda.

I see absolutely nothing wrong in asking your 16 year old kid to walk two whole blocks to run a quick errand for you at 9:00 on a summer night in your tiny town (population 500). He would have never willingly put her in danger if he knew a nutcase was going to be pulling up in front of his neighbors home to grab her off the street at the worst possible moment. It's not like he didn't punish himself every day of his life afterwards.

It's an armchair quarterback situation. Trashing him means you're basically holding it against him for not having psychic powers.
I wholeheartedly agree. It's not like he sent a six year old waving a handful of $100 bills in the South Bronx to the store at 3:00 am. Not even close. The girl was 16 years old and lived in a town with virtually zero violent crime in the previous 50 years. I'm sure she'd made that walk alone to that same store and back over a hundred times in her teenage years. It was simply wrong place, wrong time.
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Old 09-15-2017, 06:37 AM   #137
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
There is one poster, in fact, who argues one way for a half dozen years or more (innocence) in that Zeigler thread before jump shifting to loud emphasis in the other direction. A variable is suddenly inserted, one that was totally absent and apparently meant nothing 45 years after the crime but upon 47 years it screams guilt: Parties were able to keep a secret. If innocent, someone would have blabbed.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
I donít mean to criticize that person, who contributes a lot of energy to this forum. But the Zeigler switchover is a common frail tendency given the tortured point by point emphasis. Itís like being stuck in a maze. Youíve made so many decisions that each seemed sensible at the time but after failing to emerge the desperation level soars and suddenly you are frantically rejecting every choice youíve made previously.
Dude. It's an Unsolved Mysteries message board. I don't take the cases that serious.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
During that Zeigler thread you actually have other posters applauding the approach and the analysis, wanting more of it. Thatís the scary aspect. I canít describe how scary it is. Project to jury deliberation or even earlier, to prosecutors brainstorming how to decipher and present the case. When PPS (Point to Point Simpleton) mode is undertaken, no range of insulting absurdity is out of bounds. PPS is how Leah Askey understands she can invent any story and have it swallowed whole, even if none of her variables make sense as standalone, let alone together. PPS is the reason so many jurors after the fact give asinine rationalizations toward their verdict. They managed to embrace something that meant nothing.
So instead of the PPS mode, shall we adhere to the VBOTMNDS (Vegas betting odds that make no damn sense) mode while discussing cases?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
When someone weak is victimized, and someone stronger survives, but weíd really prefer for them to be dead as well, to satisfy a variable, thatís when PPS is unleashed at its most creative and dangerous. Countless sad and tragic cases share that commonality.
Man, why are you so hung up on the fact that MacDonald is guilty?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
If I invent as victim of a bizarre crime tonight in my neighborhood, with several dead relatives alongside, and a huge chunk of my story involves a band of distinct perpetrators, there will be no evidence of those perpetrators. It doesnít matter if I describe four hippies or Three Blind Mice. Nobody will find them or sniff them. Nobody will subsequently volunteer as one of the Blind Mice and be taken seriously. Itís going to be air and blank stares, with suspicion properly directed at me.
Dr. William Petit, the Hi-Fi murders, Charles Holden, and countless others refute this absurd claim.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
The fact that Helena Stoeckley existed is devastating evidence of Jeffrey MacDonaldís innocence. That variable alone overwhelms all the PPS flails, with the laughable concept of crime scene reconstruction, that you can somehow decipher exactly how many were there, who they there, what they did, and it what sequence. Laughable doesnít do justice to how preposterous that is. Innocent people suffer and will continue to suffer due to societal ignorance of the matter. Cases of that type inspire even loyal family members to become vindictive simpletons.
The fact that Stoeckley existed is no more evidence of his innocence as the fact that (SPOILER ALERT) Santa Claus doesn't exist so therefore he is guilty.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
It really doesnít matter if Stoeckley was later pressured or intimidated or threatened. It matters in justice system terms but not evaluation of the truth. None of those Stoeckley tapes or versions or details would exist upon MacDonaldís utter invention. Jeffrey Toobin understands as much. Thatís why he matter of factly stated several years ago that MacDonaldís story is so unusual itís probably true. Jeffrey Toobin is several sigmas above standard analytical thought. Heís not floundering at ground level or below like the PPS crew.
So Toobin subscribes to the VBOTMNDS method...interesting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
I love the cases that are so simple upon astute big picture scope but the masses waste hours and accumulated months sprawling after the trivial residue. Richard Floyd McCoy is obviously one of my favorites because only three variables matter:

1. He subsequently committed an almost identical skyjacking
2. A skyjacking of that type is so complicated and bold that almost nobody else could pull it off
3. McCoy was known to make an extremely strange and unprecedented drive from Provo to Las Vegas in the hours immediately preceding the DB Cooper event
Rob was DB Cooper.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
And thatís all you need. Like the MacDonald case, a handful of variables more than trump everything else combined. But since law enforcement is dependably clueless and uneducated in terms of properly weighting the attached components, an overmatched FBI dullard like Ralph Himmelsbach is placed in charge and throws away years while chasing wind velocity and other commoner crap.
Why don't you pursue a career in law enforcement?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
During my Las Vegas decades my favorite time of year was college basketball season. That meant variables and outcomes every day for months. Great profit potential if your method is sound. On Saturdays there would be more than 100 games. My approach to handicapping college basketball could not be more simple. I use preseason ratings of every team first to last and combine with a letter grade of either R, B, C or Z for every team, also based on preseason ratings. And thatís it. No adjustment as the season progresses. I donít care about momentum or injuries or anything else. I carry around my paperwork and bet the games accordingly all season through the NCAA tournament. It drives the specialized handicappers nuts because my win percentage almost always exceeds theirs even though they devote hours per day to exhaustive study. They can name every player on every team while I might be able to name a handful of players in the entire country.
Oh no...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
They know more than I do about the details. But details donít matter. Details are the foolers. Details require subjective thought, and the associated vulnerability. Iíve tried to explain that to them for decades. Finally several of them reluctantly came around, and asked for copies of my paperwork. I gave it willingly.

In sports betting you have regular results. Methods are tested accordingly, as results surface. Iím talking about real results, not Johnny-Fooled-A-Simpleton court room results.
Why were there so many upsets for week one of college football?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
Anyone who believes Jeffrey MacDonald is guilty is a first magnitude simpleton. I donít have any problem assigning those words because the opposite side routinely peddles terms like stupid or gullible toward those of us aligning with innocence.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
Itís always priceless when the PPS troops think they know something.

That 1970 video will never surface, but if it did I would watch with no expression or surprise whatsoever, as the hippies indeed invaded MacDonaldís residence and executed the attack as MacDonald always described. Meanwhile, the PPS crew would be on collective tilt. What happened to our point 12? What about connect the dot 33 through 59? We had this figured outÖthat number 137 was the clincher. Not to mention that little hair, the one theyíll clutch like the last branch on the way down.
There's a small part of me that believes if MacDonald's current wife's (or his for that matter) health fails while he's still in prison, he just might finally admit to murdering his wife and 2 young daughters to try and get out on parole. If and when that happens, we'll see who's heads will be spinning.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger
The O.J. jury got it wrong. Brutally wrong. Disgracefully wrong. But as that verdict was read, F. Lee Bailey understood like nobody else a properly weighted variable. Bailey knew that upon a guilty verdict in a case of that magnitude it would require extensive paperwork and planning, something that would require considerably more time than had passed since jury deliberations had concluded. I remember watching that verdict live and being struck at how Baileyís reaction was completely unlike anyone else on the defense side. Robert Kardashian was in shock. Johnny Cochran was jubilant. Simpson was almost giddy. As my Las Vegas friends alongside that Monday morning were loudly discussing what had transpired, I was mostly silent and wondering what F. Lee Bailey knew. Plainly he knew something. I awaited Baileyís summary more than anything else in the aftermath.

And it was terrific later that day when Bailey indeed volunteered that he knew it had to be not guilty, based on duration alone. He wasnít asked. He provided. Bailey in that court room setting knew that one particular variable was worth exponentially more than anything else attached, even if that variable was mostly ignored or confidently downplayed by others.
Congratulations. You've finally said something of substance.
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Old 09-15-2017, 06:45 AM   #138
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Oo I want to play!
I had forgot about Michael Lloyd Self. I think UM really went out of their way to paint Self like an angel, and that his confessions were coerced. The only problem is that his confessions have some inconsistencies in them. If the police were coercing him, why not get him to match the known facts 100%? I think Self is guilty.
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Old 09-15-2017, 02:01 PM   #139
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Nice to hear from you both again, Awsi and Cars respectfully. You can add me to the list of posters who fall in line with your thoughts on the Simpson case. It's been hard for me to accept the fact that he was just granted parole in the armed robbery mess, especially when I'm still bitter about the fact that he got away with a violent double murder! But what the hell...if opinions were nickels as my mama likes to say.
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Old 09-15-2017, 08:45 PM   #140
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Season 7 was by far the worst season of Unsolved Mysteries. Far too much paranormal stuff.
Hate the lost loves segments.
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Old 09-15-2017, 08:50 PM   #141
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I don't think Hugh Harlin had anything to do with his wife Diane's murder and he left on his own accord to get away from the rumors about it. I think I mentioned this as well, but IMO, Paul Pollis had nothing to do with his wife's disappearance. I think it could've been a burglary gone wrong and the suspects took Charlotte & killed her
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Old 09-15-2017, 08:51 PM   #142
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Another unpopular opinion, UFO & treasure segments are a waste of a segment to me.
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Old 09-15-2017, 09:02 PM   #143
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Another unpopular opinion, UFO & treasure segments are a waste of a segment to me.
I think a lot of the treasure ones are too, but I loved the Victorio Peak one having gotten to see it for the first time via Prime.

The government totally stole it.
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Old 09-16-2017, 12:11 AM   #144
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drew790
I think a lot of the treasure ones are too, but I loved the Victorio Peak one having gotten to see it for the first time via Prime.

The government totally stole it.
You are not alone in your opinion of the Victorio Peak segment. Normally I don't really go in for the treasure hunt segments, but this one totally captured my interest. For what it's worth, I think our government got up to no good in this case too...
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Old 09-16-2017, 01:20 AM   #145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsaun
Hate the lost loves segments.
I always found them to be quite boring as a child. Sorry if that sounds rather heartless. In fact I barely remember most of them, except the Sharon Stevens search for the Zelinski's and a couple of others.
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Old 09-16-2017, 02:23 AM   #146
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amandab1234
I think I mentioned this as well, but IMO, Paul Pollis had nothing to do with his wife's disappearance. I think it could've been a burglary gone wrong and the suspects took Charlotte & killed her
I agree with that. There's been no evidence that he did anything to her, and there's nothing to say he was abusive. For him to be guilty, he would have had to pull off the perfect crime, and in a short amount of time. I lean towards him not killing her.
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Old 09-16-2017, 02:31 AM   #147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by amandab1234
I think I mentioned this as well, but IMO, Paul Pollis had nothing to do with his wife's disappearance.
I try to look at everything objectively before jumping to conclusions and try not to let things (positive OR negative) cloud my judgment when it comes to forming an opinion on most anything. I also consider to be quite an open-minded individual when it comes to many things and am willing to try new things (food, music, etc.) pretty much any time. Having said that, I absolutely cannot even fathom how anybody could possibly think that Paul Pollis isn't one of the guiltiest people ever profiled on UM.
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Old 09-16-2017, 05:18 AM   #148
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsaun
Hate the lost loves segments.
I would always change the channel when the lost loves segments came on (now I fast forward through them on Prime). I'd much rather see a wanted, unexplained death case that i knew was solved again, than sit through a lost loves segment.
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Old 09-16-2017, 05:56 AM   #149
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I agree with that. There's been no evidence that he did anything to her, and there's nothing to say he was abusive. For him to be guilty, he would have had to pull off the perfect crime, and in a short amount of time. I lean towards him not killing her.
Their narrative just reads like a massive stretch and a thing that could only exist in fiction.

The notion his elderly parents disposed of a 300lb woman is absurd, nor that he could have by himself.

Assuming Paul dismembered her where was the blood? The neighbor saw him loading the car in the morning with boxes and bags, her family invaded that evening. If she was in the car in the morning she wasn't in the shed that evening. The cleaning by his parents didn't happen until the days that followed the day she disappeared, so where was the blood? Nothing on the carpets, the kitchen, nothing in the snow by the shed, there would have been something visible the evening they were there before all the cleaning.

"Mommy was put in a dark trash bag". Whole? I don't think so. If the child was able to remember that much, wouldn't they remember she was in pieces? If his parents were willing accomplices wouldn't they have taken the children so that all could have been done unseen?

Every piece of their evidence is a massive leap to the worst imaginable conclusion. The mother keeps her up on the phone till 1:30am because of a cold and then is shocked at 8:50am she's still sleeping. She doesn't answer the phone so she calls back every 10 minutes. It's weird.
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Old 09-16-2017, 05:58 AM   #150
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Having said that, I absolutely cannot even fathom how anybody could possibly think that Paul Pollis isn't one of the guiltiest people ever profiled on UM.
Agreed. The only other culprit I have in that mind that killed Charlotte was the kitchen floor. Maybe it was too clean from Paul's superb upkeep that she slipped.
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