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Old 09-13-2017, 09:58 PM   #121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Stack's Voice
I tend to generally lean towards the idea that the simplest answer is the best answer, especially in regards to crime. How often have we seen a case on UM where there is an elaborate theory as to the person's whereabouts only to later find out that they were simply murdered, often close in time to their disappearance? Kari Lynn Nixon comes to mind, for me.
Sammy Wheeler is another one
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Old 09-14-2017, 08:23 AM   #122
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Speaking of Sammy Wheeler, here is something that I'm sure will be an unpopular opinion (sorry folks)...

That you are tired of jokes and quotes derived from this case and no longer find them funny because they have been repeated ad nauseam on the board.
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Old 09-14-2017, 08:44 AM   #123
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I'll also throw this out there as another "simplest answer is best fit" unpopular opinion:

Brad Bishop very likely died in the woods after he ditched his car in the Smoky Mountains. I realize that there have been sightings, as unlikely as they may be, and that Bishop had connections all over the world but I can't help but feel like a guy who kills his family, drives hours to bury them, and then drives across a rather large state to ditch his car may not be of the most sound mind. I imagine the killings being a psychotic break and that Bishop was likely in a haze of sorts from the time he killed his family until the time that he ditched his car. Even if you buy that Bishop wanted to kill his family because they stood in the way of his career advancement, you have to admit that he certainly didn't achieve that end. He also didn't even try to cover it up in a way that made himself look not guilty so he could plausibly retain his career. What was Bishop's end game? Kill his family and travel around Europe as a wanted fugitive? It doesn't make sense. As much social stigma as he would have faced, he would've been better off just getting a divorce. I think that not getting the promotion triggered something within Bishop that led him on his spree and his own eventual death.

He very likely wandered off into the woods, got lost on a remote mountain trail, and died of exposure or starvation. His remains are likely never to be found because they were eaten by forest animals, though I suppose a bone fragment or two might be waiting somewhere.
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Old 09-14-2017, 08:47 AM   #124
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Dave Bocks was killed because of someone else's screw up at work. No whistleblowing, or government conspiracies.
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Old 09-14-2017, 10:03 AM   #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justins5256
Speaking of Sammy Wheeler, here is something that I'm sure will be an unpopular opinion (sorry folks)...

That you are tired of jokes and quotes derived from this case and no longer find them funny because they have been repeated ad nauseam on the board.
You better BEANlieve it agagagagagagagahahaaga urgh ugh
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Old 09-14-2017, 01:21 PM   #126
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unsolved88
I don't know if it's unpopular, but I've always felt that Charlie Sigmin had more a temper than UM told us and that there may have been a legitimate reason why he was "unlucky in love".
This; I think Mitchum and Goff planned on killing him, but that there was more of a backstory than just his concerns over her behavior.

Someone negligently fired the gun at Rae Ann Mossor; the physical evidence doesn't support a suicide or a self induced accidental injury.

Despite the mention of a "Hank" in her journal, Henry Blair had been stalking several people and never provided credible information about Amy Billig or was connected to her disappearance.

I don't blame investigators for looking at Anthonette Cayedito's parents, but similar to Lauren Jackson's disappearance, this could have been a case of an acquaintance taking advantage of a negligent parental situation.
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Old 09-14-2017, 06:27 PM   #127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Todd Mueller
Welcome to the board, Robert Stack's Voice! Nice to have you here.

If you didn't like the fluff in Season 7, then you'll love Season 8...
Nothing tops Season 9.

Fat guy eats a ton of free chocolate, has sex with girlfriend.
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Old 09-14-2017, 06:36 PM   #128
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCars1986
-Every person featured in the Final Appeal segments (aside from the ones that were actually exonerated) were guilty except Michael Scott Martin, Steve Shores and Frederick Young.
Let's see how I stack up...

Guilty without question

Glen Consagra
Dr. John Branion
Larry Race
Dr. Jeffery MacDonald
Paul W. Ferrell
Dan Montecalvo
Thomas Drake
Michael Lloyd Self
Stuart Heaton
Darlie Routier

Guilty with some question

Tommy Ziegler
Frederick Young

Innocent with some question

Michael Scott Martin
Port Chicago Seamen
Steve Shore
Rick McCue
Paul Freshour

Innocent without question

Johnny Lee Wilson
Patricia Stallings
Tony Miller
Luis Diaz
Rolando Cruz
John Purvis
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Old 09-14-2017, 07:52 PM   #129
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justins5256
Let's see how I stack up...

Guilty without question

Glen Consagra
Dr. John Branion
Larry Race
Dr. Jeffery MacDonald
Paul W. Ferrell
Dan Montecalvo
Thomas Drake
Michael Lloyd Self
Stuart Heaton
Darlie Routier

Guilty with some question

Tommy Ziegler
Frederick Young

Innocent with some question

Michael Scott Martin
Port Chicago Seamen
Steve Shore
Rick McCue
Paul Freshour

Innocent without question

Johnny Lee Wilson
Patricia Stallings
Tony Miller
Luis Diaz
Rolando Cruz
John Purvis
Oo I want to play!


Guilty without question

Tommy Ziegler
Glen Consagra
Jeff MacDonald
Dan Montecalvo
Thomas Drake
Stuart Heaton
Darlie Routier

Guilty with some question

Paul Ferrell
Frederick Young

Innocent with some question

Michael Lloyd Self
Larry Race
Steve Shore
Rick McCue
Michael Scott Martin
Dr. John Branion (this one was tough for me. I feel like I'm somewhere between guilty with some question and innocent with some question, simply because the timeline doesn't support Branion himself committing the murder nor was there any apparent evidence of Branion hiring anyone to commit the murder, although I'd bet dollars to donuts Branion's own, yet unrecovered PPK was in fact the murder weapon)

Innocent without question

Johnny Lee Wilson
Patricia Stallings
Tony Miller
Luis Diaz
Rolando Cruz
John Purvis
Paul Freshour
Port Chicago Seamen
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Old 09-14-2017, 08:33 PM   #130
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Originally Posted by freakbook
You better BEANlieve it agagagagagagagahahaaga urgh ugh
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Old 09-14-2017, 09:08 PM   #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon


I had just woken up. Forgive me.
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Old 09-14-2017, 10:09 PM   #132
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The more variables you put into play, therefore the more decisions you are forced to make, and consequently the likelihood of finding the correct solution plummets accordingly.

That Tommy Zeigler thread that has been planted near the top of page one recently is a prime example. Itís basically a blueprint of everything not to do. I legitimately feel sorry for anyone who doesnít laugh all the way through that thread, or at least after kadrmas stopped contributing. He was always a bit more specifics-oriented than my taste but overall he had a fantastic big picture grasp, one that is very rare overall and nearly non existent on true crime message boards, where the latest 279 variable scramble is all the rage.

There is one poster, in fact, who argues one way for a half dozen years or more (innocence) in that Zeigler thread before jump shifting to loud emphasis in the other direction. A variable is suddenly inserted, one that was totally absent and apparently meant nothing 45 years after the crime but upon 47 years it screams guilt: Parties were able to keep a secret. If innocent, someone would have blabbed.

I donít mean to criticize that person, who contributes a lot of energy to this forum. But the Zeigler switchover is a common frail tendency given the tortured point by point emphasis. Itís like being stuck in a maze. Youíve made so many decisions that each seemed sensible at the time but after failing to emerge the desperation level soars and suddenly you are frantically rejecting every choice youíve made previously.

During that Zeigler thread you actually have other posters applauding the approach and the analysis, wanting more of it. Thatís the scary aspect. I canít describe how scary it is. Project to jury deliberation or even earlier, to prosecutors brainstorming how to decipher and present the case. When PPS (Point to Point Simpleton) mode is undertaken, no range of insulting absurdity is out of bounds. PPS is how Leah Askey understands she can invent any story and have it swallowed whole, even if none of her variables make sense as standalone, let alone together. PPS is the reason so many jurors after the fact give asinine rationalizations toward their verdict. They managed to embrace something that meant nothing.

When someone weak is victimized, and someone stronger survives, but weíd really prefer for them to be dead as well, to satisfy a variable, thatís when PPS is unleashed at its most creative and dangerous. Countless sad and tragic cases share that commonality.

If I invent as victim of a bizarre crime tonight in my neighborhood, with several dead relatives alongside, and a huge chunk of my story involves a band of distinct perpetrators, there will be no evidence of those perpetrators. It doesnít matter if I describe four hippies or Three Blind Mice. Nobody will find them or sniff them. Nobody will subsequently volunteer as one of the Blind Mice and be taken seriously. Itís going to be air and blank stares, with suspicion properly directed at me.

The fact that Helena Stoeckley existed is devastating evidence of Jeffrey MacDonaldís innocence. That variable alone overwhelms all the PPS flails, with the laughable concept of crime scene reconstruction, that you can somehow decipher exactly how many were there, who they there, what they did, and it what sequence. Laughable doesnít do justice to how preposterous that is. Innocent people suffer and will continue to suffer due to societal ignorance of the matter. Cases of that type inspire even loyal family members to become vindictive simpletons.

It really doesnít matter if Stoeckley was later pressured or intimidated or threatened. It matters in justice system terms but not evaluation of the truth. None of those Stoeckley tapes or versions or details would exist upon MacDonaldís utter invention. Jeffrey Toobin understands as much. Thatís why he matter of factly stated several years ago that MacDonaldís story is so unusual itís probably true. Jeffrey Toobin is several sigmas above standard analytical thought. Heís not floundering at ground level or below like the PPS crew.

I love the cases that are so simple upon astute big picture scope but the masses waste hours and accumulated months sprawling after the trivial residue. Richard Floyd McCoy is obviously one of my favorites because only three variables matter:

1. He subsequently committed an almost identical skyjacking
2. A skyjacking of that type is so complicated and bold that almost nobody else could pull it off
3. McCoy was known to make an extremely strange and unprecedented drive from Provo to Las Vegas in the hours immediately preceding the DB Cooper event

And thatís all you need. Like the MacDonald case, a handful of variables more than trump everything else combined. But since law enforcement is dependably clueless and uneducated in terms of properly weighting the attached components, an overmatched FBI dullard like Ralph Himmelsbach is placed in charge and throws away years while chasing wind velocity and other commoner crap.

Ralph Himmelsbach probably thinks Adam Emery is alive.

During my Las Vegas decades my favorite time of year was college basketball season. That meant variables and outcomes every day for months. Great profit potential if your method is sound. On Saturdays there would be more than 100 games. My approach to handicapping college basketball could not be more simple. I use preseason ratings of every team first to last and combine with a letter grade of either R, B, C or Z for every team, also based on preseason ratings. And thatís it. No adjustment as the season progresses. I donít care about momentum or injuries or anything else. I carry around my paperwork and bet the games accordingly all season through the NCAA tournament. It drives the specialized handicappers nuts because my win percentage almost always exceeds theirs even though they devote hours per day to exhaustive study. They can name every player on every team while I might be able to name a handful of players in the entire country.

They know more than I do about the details. But details donít matter. Details are the foolers. Details require subjective thought, and the associated vulnerability. Iíve tried to explain that to them for decades. Finally several of them reluctantly came around, and asked for copies of my paperwork. I gave it willingly.

In sports betting you have regular results. Methods are tested accordingly, as results surface. Iím talking about real results, not Johnny-Fooled-A-Simpleton court room results.

Anyone who believes Jeffrey MacDonald is guilty is a first magnitude simpleton. I donít have any problem assigning those words because the opposite side routinely peddles terms like stupid or gullible toward those of us aligning with innocence.

Itís always priceless when the PPS troops think they know something.

That 1970 video will never surface, but if it did I would watch with no expression or surprise whatsoever, as the hippies indeed invaded MacDonaldís residence and executed the attack as MacDonald always described. Meanwhile, the PPS crew would be on collective tilt. What happened to our point 12? What about connect the dot 33 through 59? We had this figured outÖthat number 137 was the clincher. Not to mention that little hair, the one theyíll clutch like the last branch on the way down.

The O.J. jury got it wrong. Brutally wrong. Disgracefully wrong. But as that verdict was read, F. Lee Bailey understood like nobody else a properly weighted variable. Bailey knew that upon a guilty verdict in a case of that magnitude it would require extensive paperwork and planning, something that would require considerably more time than had passed since jury deliberations had concluded. I remember watching that verdict live and being struck at how Baileyís reaction was completely unlike anyone else on the defense side. Robert Kardashian was in shock. Johnny Cochran was jubilant. Simpson was almost giddy. As my Las Vegas friends alongside that Monday morning were loudly discussing what had transpired, I was mostly silent and wondering what F. Lee Bailey knew. Plainly he knew something. I awaited Baileyís summary more than anything else in the aftermath.

And it was terrific later that day when Bailey indeed volunteered that he knew it had to be not guilty, based on duration alone. He wasnít asked. He provided. Bailey in that court room setting knew that one particular variable was worth exponentially more than anything else attached, even if that variable was mostly ignored or confidently downplayed by others.
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Old 09-14-2017, 11:12 PM   #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Stack's Voice
Kari Lynn Nixon comes to mind, for me.
To piggyback off Kari Lynn Nixon but in a different direction; I'm in the extreme minority here who doesn't trash her father endlessly for asking her to pick up chips and soda.

I see absolutely nothing wrong in asking your 16 year old kid to walk two whole blocks to run a quick errand for you at 9:00 on a summer night in your tiny town (population 500). He would have never willingly put her in danger if he knew a nutcase was going to be pulling up in front of his neighbors home to grab her off the street at the worst possible moment. It's not like he didn't punish himself every day of his life afterwards.

It's an armchair quarterback situation. Trashing him means you're basically holding it against him for not having psychic powers.
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Old 09-15-2017, 12:20 AM   #134
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Originally Posted by dynoguy88
To piggyback off Kari Lynn Nixon but in a different direction; I'm in the extreme minority here who doesn't trash her father endlessly for asking her to pick up chips and soda.

I see absolutely nothing wrong in asking your 16 year old kid to walk two whole blocks to run a quick errand for you at 9:00 on a summer night in your tiny town (population 500). He would have never willingly put her in danger if he knew a nutcase was going to be pulling up in front of his neighbors home to grab her off the street at the worst possible moment. It's not like he didn't punish himself every day of his life afterwards.

It's an armchair quarterback situation. Trashing him means you're basically holding it against him for not having psychic powers.
I feel similarly about Dan Killaby. He missed his date with his wife because he had a few too many beers and couldn't drive, and also didn't call his wife late that night. It was a jerk move, but he certainly had no idea it would lead to her going to a bar and getting killed by a paroled killer. I feel horrible for the guy. He knew he made a mistake, and I'm sure he's spent 20+ years wishing he could take it back.
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Old 09-15-2017, 01:33 AM   #135
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Wait is Darlie Routier in the upcoming seasons?

I personally believe that there's something mote more to Jennifer Pratt's mother than appears. She seemed kind of snooty to me. (I swear to god every time I saw promo for that damn Passengers film I thought of that case because of her name)
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