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Old 06-25-2009, 03:22 PM   #91
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Aileen Conway left her home, apparently abruptly, leaving a drawn bath, a hot iron, the telephone off the hook in her house, the back porch door open, and water running into her pool.

She was found in her car, several miles away from her home on a lonely country road that she had no readily apparent reason for being on. from eveidence at the scene, she was apparently traveling between 50 and 60 mph hour when she hit the guard rail, which can be estimated from skid marks, which themselves indicate there was an attempt to stop the car before it hit the obstruction. The car was found ablaze. The gas cap was missing. A Church bulletin matching the decription of one Aileen's husband claims was in her car was found about 200 yards away from the accident scene. I don't remember if the segment specifies in which direction.

That's about it I think.

Why do you ask?
if you asked a homicide detective, that a body was found miles away from it's home. And that same home was in a state of activity or disarray? And last known location was said home.

What would you lean toward?
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Old 06-25-2009, 03:27 PM   #92
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That was all I really wanted to know.
I take it from this comment that you think that since I can't prove a stroke happened, that murder is therefore equally likely. This is exactly my point: ANYTHING we say here is obviously only speculation, but, if someone wants to speculate murder, any scenario someone draws up has to 1) fit the conditions of the case (i.e., the facts as we know them) and 2) be plausible in meeting those conditions. I'm callin attention to the problem that theories of the murder where someone says "the accident was rigged," usually dn't offer a plausible explanation of how that was done. To say that the gas cap was missing and the car catching on fire by itself from an accident isn't likely are perhaps reasons to suspect arson and a rigged accident, but they offer no explanation of how the actual accident part of this supposedly staged event was accomplished. Most attempts to explain how this accident cold have been staged not only do not but CAN NOT square with the evidence at the scene. There is only one possible way to construct a "rigged accident" narrative that accounts for the evidence and the scene and is therefore physically possible, but it depends on so many suppositions - not the least of which is the assumption of the presence of someone when there is no direct evidence to support it - as to be highly unlikely.

Yes, I have no evidence that she had a stroke. But aside from that one guess, the theory I presented explains everything without relying on the existence of third parties we can't say for sure even exist, and supposes an accident scenario at the scene very much supported by the physical evidence.

In order to propose a murder scenario I can accept, someone would need to come up with a narrative that, while accounting for the for the evidence of the speed of the car and the attempt at braking before impact, explains how the accident was staged that is far more likely than the only one I could up with.
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Old 06-25-2009, 03:29 PM   #93
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if you asked a homicide detective, that a body was found miles away from it's home. And that same home was in a state of activity or disarray? And last known location was said home.

What would you lean toward?
This is cherry picking: you left out the fact that the body wasn't found out by itself in a ditch somewhere, it was found in a CAR. That had clearly had an accident. And that the person in question was found behind the wheel, and had died in that accident (though I don't think the segment makes clear whether the cause of death was determined to be injuries resulting from the accident or smoke inhalation resulting from the fire, but it doesn't really matter - either manner of death could be consistent with a car accident of the nature discovered that morning). And that there was nothing to suggest anyone else was with her when this happened.
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Old 06-25-2009, 03:32 PM   #94
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I tend to agree with the lawyer from the segment. Based on what UM gave us, this case is simply unsolvable. This is a big topic and some strong theories have been posted, but ultimately we only have that the home was left in a state as if she just picked up and left, maybe some jewelry missing. There are skid marks on a dirt road, a super-intense fire and a church bulletin 200 yards away.

I'm having trouble with that. Maybe it's fairly common to see objects fly that far away in accidents, but a piece of paper (can't be of any great thickness as they probably produced hundreds of these things on a regular basis) going twice the length of a football field? It's amazing to me that the wind or windshield or anything didn't stop it, or the fact that it's paper and would flip fly around. I'm not saying there's some big conspiracy theory there, but wowzers at that.

I really wish there wasn't such sparse information available for this case. What did UM withhold for tip verification? What other info is there?

Unfortunately, none of the evidence is really useful. To me, missing jewelry is only important if a lot is missing, but we didn't get any clear amount. If it's just a small amount then there's no telling what happened. After all, how often was this guy/family looking at her jewelry to know everything she had? So, I don't trust it unless it was a substantial amount.

As previously mentioned in Mozart's last post, the gas cap being missing doesn't explain anything. It leads to interesting theories, but that's it. She could have lost it the last time she filled up, which could have been right before the fateful trip or in that very recent timeframe. That the missing cap made the fire much worse is bad, but greater coincidences have happened, especially on UM.

Since I don't think any of the evidence is really that strong and there isn't much of it to go around in the first place, this case is a nightmare. Since we have no phone records, there is no way to know in any way, shape, or form why she even left the house. Was it an affair with an accidental car accident? A medical emergency? Foul play? Was she going to the store to pick up something for a meal, but she knew the local grocery store wouldn't carry it, so she decided to try a new store that had opened recently in a nearby town?

I personally think she was headed somewhere, for some reason, and she had some unfortunate medical episode that caused her to lose control and swerve right. She may or may not have been trying to brake, it could have just been her body going stiff from whatever was going on. Phone records may show why she was leaving, but I doubt it because they would have mentioned it. Unless that was their tip filter, which would be a weird tip filter.

So once again, things fall apart.

Sounds as good as any theory to me.
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Old 06-25-2009, 03:43 PM   #95
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In order to propose a murder scenario I can accept, someone would need to come up with a narrative that, while accounting for the for the evidence of the speed of the car and the attempt at braking before impact, explains how the accident was staged that is far more likely than the only one I could up with.
In order to investigate murder all I need is good enough cause to warrant spending my time following that angle. To me all the evidence makes the search for a murder suspect worthwhile.

There is nothing to prevent me from looking into the robberies in the area. Catching a suspect and then gaining more evidence that may lead to one of them being an accomplice in the murder of Aileen.

In your scenario, I think we run a huge risk in someone not only getting away with murders, but potentially commiting more crimes.
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Old 06-25-2009, 03:46 PM   #96
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I personally think she was headed somewhere, for some reason, and she had some unfortunate medical episode that caused her to lose control and swerve right. She may or may not have been trying to brake, it could have just been her body going stiff from whatever was going on. Phone records may show why she was leaving, but I doubt it because they would have mentioned it. Unless that was their tip filter, which would be a weird tip filter.
Why would she leave her house like that with the water running? What phone call could be that important to cause her to do that?
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Old 06-25-2009, 03:46 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by Mastermind
Mozart,

Why a stroke?

Why not a heart attack or diabetic shock?

Why did you choose a stroke?

it didn't have anything to do with the fact that it conveniently prevented her from making a 911 did it or speaking into the phone?

You sure you didn't choose a stroke cause it fit the theory? You sure your not cherrypicking?
Perhaps i should clarify: I am not so much arguing FOR my theory as I am AGAINST any theory that claims she was murdered as part of a rigged accident scene. I could much more easily accept, for example, the idea i posted at the end of my big long post: perhaps she had been abducted, and, through happenstance or in an effort to escape, the car crashed. But the key difference here between this and a staged accident theory is that 1) the car really crashed and 2) it was not planned by a murderer.

I guess what I am saying is this: the evidence at the scene basically excludes, in my mind, a "fake" crash. After that, it's anybody's guess exactly what happened: Why was she where she was? Why did she leave the house in such a hurry? We can only guess at the answers to these questions, but we must always come back to the one thing we do really know (or at least I'm arguing we know): this was a REAL car crash, not one staged by a murderer. So the answers to these questions must make sense when combined with that fact.

When people say "She was murdered! It was arson!" this begs the question: it assumes the accident was rigged in order to show that it was rigged. The problem is there is no way to explain the speed of the car and the attempt to stop which also features a rigged accident, at least not that I can figure. If someone wants to explain how it could plausibly bee done, I'm all ears.
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Old 06-25-2009, 03:53 PM   #98
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this was a REAL car crash, not one staged by a murderer. So the answers to these questions must make sense when combined with that fact.
On a scale of 1-10. How certain are you that it was a real crash?
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Old 06-25-2009, 04:05 PM   #99
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Unfortunately, none of the evidence is really useful. To me, missing jewelry is only important if a lot is missing
You don't think the fact jewelry was missing from the house is significant????!!!
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Old 06-25-2009, 04:14 PM   #100
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On a scale of 1-10. How certain are you that it was a real crash?
10
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Old 06-25-2009, 04:30 PM   #101
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For this to be an accident & noone else involved, you have to ask yourself what made her leave the house & leave it the way it was later found. Only explanation for that I can think of is some kind of emergency. Only emergencies I can think of is it being some kind of medical involving one of her family members(which we know is not the case), with a friend(wich we know is not the case) or with herself. I think if it was with her, instead of risking causing more harm to herself buy driving, I think she would have called 911 instead. What doesn't makey any sense is the phone in the master bath was off the hook. If she was gonna go do some sort of errand, I think that she would not leave the phone off the hook, water running in the pool, iron on & leave her purse behind.

To me at least 1 person surprised her in her home while she was doing different things. I think they surprised her while she was in the bathroom or she was in another part of the house, notice someone/s were in her home & made her way to the bathroom to call 911 & they caught her.

They stated in the segment that they think whoever got her out there on that lonely road tried to get the car to go into the river but instead it crashed into the guardrail. Also mentioned that most likely the inside of the car was doused with gasoline.

With this case, I will always believe in some way shape or form there was foul play involved.
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Old 06-25-2009, 04:37 PM   #102
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Quote:
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On a scale of 1-10. How certain are you that it was a real crash?

10
Unless you were an eyeball witness or god almighty...there is no way you can be a 10.

The highest I would ever go would be 8.

On this case I'm a 7.
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Old 06-25-2009, 04:43 PM   #103
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This case took place in Oklahoma, to refresh everyone's memory. Ayleen/Aileen is actually spelled, as a poster once pointed out in a different thread before, "Aeileen Conway." It appears that her mother passed away in 2003. From the obituary of her mother, Aeileen seems to have had a brother named Patrick C. Anderson and a sister named Judy Wilson (nee Anderson) who were alive in 2003.

Not only that, but her husband, Pat Conway, was alive as recently as 2003, and evidently re-married, this time to a woman named Patt. Pat Conway is still listed as Aeileen's mother's son-in-law in this obit. I guess Pat remained close to his first wife's family.
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Old 06-26-2009, 09:10 AM   #104
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Something else that occured to me is that keeping the telephone off the hook also gives the impression that Ayleen was still at home if her husband or anyone called.
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Old 08-24-2009, 08:28 PM   #105
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I have enjoyed reading all the theories here. I'm gonna have a go at it now This case sort of reminds me of the woman (pre-stack episode) who was staying with her Aunt and Uncle, and broke the window of her bedroom and ended up (apparently, as later evidence showed) wandering down a lonely road in the middle of the night, and slipped off of a small cliff and fell to her death.

We are all thinking that Ayleen was in a rational frame of mind when she left/was taken from the house. But in the above case, the girl apparently had a panic attack, or something happened and she snapped, and wandered off and slipped (it was ruled that she died accidentally).

This makes me think that Ayleen could have been conducting her normal routine (the phone off the hook was most likely that she did not want to be disturbed), and then had a psychological attack/turmoil of some kind, in which she lost it and fled.

The very fact that the evidence doesn't support one single, logical hypothesis (suicide, murder, accident, etc) leads me to believe that she was totally off when this happened.

I doubt the idea of a medical emergency (non-psychiatric) because she was found 19 miles from her house. She would have been basically driving for 15 minutes in the wrong direction before she ultimately had the final stroke, etc, for that theory to work. I think, for reasons we will never know, she had a mental break, and fled.

No other theory really makes sense to me (the debate has been great though on the forum). It would be interesting to know if she had psychological problems, or even if she didn't, a history in her family. Often, things go undiagnosed.

Any thoughts? I agree that murder seems unlikely, considering the way the car was found, and the level with which they random robbers would have gone to hide the crime. Seems too far-fetched.
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