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Old 10-11-2007, 11:58 AM   #46
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You know, I love it when we really analyze cases like this because there are so many angles to look at. Honestly, I never really had much interest in this case until now. Keep them coming guys!!
I agree. This is one of my most favorite cases because its just so baffling and we're not going to throw out any theories that make sense 100%. It does seem to be agreed on by most everyone that in the midst of her daily routine she left her home abruptly and was probably killed in the car accident...but why? I've always hoped that one of Aileen's relatives or friends would come across this board and be able to tell us more that UM left out so maybe that will happen one day.
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Old 10-11-2007, 02:40 PM   #47
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I guess this proves the controversy of this case; I (obviously) think that murder is a much longer shot.

The fact that her purse remained behind in the house argues AGAINST burglary, not for it. What object, more than any other, is likely to contain things of immediate value --- money, credit cards, etc. --- than a purse? If people had actually been in the house to steal stuff, the purse would not have been there, or, if it had been there, anything of any value at all would have been gone from it. If that were the case, the UM segment would have mentioned it, because it would have undoubtedly bolstered the case for burglary/murder.

The patio door being openend is easily explained in the medical emergency scenario. She went out to fill the pool, and started to experience the onset of a mild-to-moderate stroke while outside. She ran back into the house to call for help, realized she couldn't speak well enough (one of the first things a stroke does is impair speech) to make a coherent call, and so ran out to her car to try to get help. The iron being left on is just the result of Ayleen panicking about the state of her immediate health. My guess is, if you're having a stroke and you know it, you don't think "I'd better turn the iron off." You think, "I'd better get help."

Good use of the timeline, wiseguy. In fact, it's so god that I once again thinks it argues against the burglary/murder theory. We know she had to be on her way out of the house NO LATER than 10:25. We also know that she appeared to be in the middle of some daily housework, which means she was probably in the house at 10:00AM. And, since she was drawing a bath, she had probably been in the house since the previous evening (i.e., she had not gone out yet to do the day's shopping, etc.). And, since Ayleen had a car, the most obvious sign in the world that she was home would have been right in front of her house! How could the burglarers fail to notice it? And why would they attempt to burglarize an occupied house, especially since all their other attempts had apparently been against vacated houses?

Finally, and this question STILL has not been satisfactorily answered, HOW was the murder committed, if it was indeed committed on that lonely stretch of road? How did they produce the skid marks if the car was rigged to accelerate until it hit an obstruction? How did they get the car up to that kind of speed before getting it to hit the obstruction (they would have had to have started this process a considerable distance away from the bridge to account for the speed on impact, which doesn't seem overly likely)?

These are questions that must be answered for a murder theory to even be POSSIBLE!
I had always thought that burglars weren't in the house for very long as there weren't any obvious signs of burglary, although you mentioned that the family later noticed things missing. Since the car was found 15 min. away, we would have to figure that the burglars, if they did exist, spent at least 15 min with her. That's quite awhile, as most most criminals tend to not lounge around for extended periods of time and just get in and get out. So that they would have to spend so much time with her on the road, they probably didn't stay in the house for exceedingly long as this would have further increased their chances of being noticed (by say a neighbor). This did happen in broad daylight, so there is that risk. Additionally, they probably did not want to off Ayleen in the house as that could have taken mass amounts of time in clean-up.

I've had to call 911 several times, but I was never at the point where I couldn't speak so I can't say for sure, but I have heard that if you can at least manage to call 911 and the operator hears that someone is on the line, but their speech is slurred, or out of breath or whatever, they will figure the person is in trouble and send someone out.

As far as the car goes, maybe it was in the garage? The segment doesn't really specify.

I am by no means a car buff, so I can't answer your final question. Although I do know that UM once did a segment on "Swoop and Swat" I believe it was called, aka "Box-ins". This is where criminals occupy three cars and they form a box-in on the victim, by having one car in front, one car in back, and one on the side to prevent the victim from going anywhere than the side of the road, hence a crash. That is a possibility here, and would make sense as far as why Ayleen was travelling at 50-60 mph.

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Old 10-11-2007, 03:55 PM   #48
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I got to thinking about the Ayleen being chased out of the house angle and becoming a victim of a "swoop and swat" that I just mentioned, and it all seems to fit that way. It would explain why the burglars left the purse, why Ayleen left the house the way it was, why she was out on the road she wasnt familiar with, why there wasn't any signs of another car being present, etc.

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Old 10-11-2007, 10:42 PM   #49
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not to toot my own horn, but I got to thinking about the Ayleen being chased out of the house angle and becoming a victim of a "swoop and swat" that I just mentioned, and it all seems to fit that way. It would explain why the burglars left the purse, why Ayleen left the house the way it was, why she was out on the road she wasnt familiar with, why there wasn't any signs of another car being present, etc.
But wouldn't bringing three cars to committ ONE burglary be the definition of conspicuous? Wouldn't somebody have noticed a bunch of cars that didn't belong all near the same house? If they were all parked far enough away not to be seen around the house, then Ayleen would have gotten a heck of a head start in getting into her car and driving before any of the burglarers reached theirs.
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Old 10-12-2007, 01:22 PM   #50
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But wouldn't bringing three cars to committ ONE burglary be the definition of conspicuous? Wouldn't somebody have noticed a bunch of cars that didn't belong all near the same house? If they were all parked far enough away not to be seen around the house, then Ayleen would have gotten a heck of a head start in getting into her car and driving before any of the burglarers reached theirs.
Not if they're spaced enough apart. Plus, the Annie Laurie Hearin segment mentions 2 suspcious vehicles in the neighborhoood that day, so 3 isn't too much of a stretch from 2. Given how fast vehicles can go, I'm sure Ayleen's potential head start could have been erased in no time.
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Old 10-12-2007, 06:41 PM   #51
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Not if they're spaced enough apart. Plus, the Annie Laurie Hearin segment mentions 2 suspcious vehicles in the neighborhoood that day, so 3 isn't too much of a stretch from 2. Given how fast vehicles can go, I'm sure Ayleen's potential head start could have been erased in no time.
But that's just it --- one vehicle that doesn't belong is likely to be ignored or not noticed. Two starts to become something people take note of. Three? Hard to believe there were no witnesses to three out-of-neighborhood cars hanging around the Conway residence.
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Old 10-12-2007, 09:11 PM   #52
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Default I've finally watched the WHOLE segment

And I take back my original hypothesis which was formulated without knowing that the car had crashed, only that it was set aflame.

My new theory is that Ayleen commited suicide. I'm being serious here. I say that because when I say why I think she commited suicide you all might think I'm screwing around. But no, not this time.

After reading the posts and reconsidering how the house was found...the bathtub...the hose and the pool...the iron on...and also considering that she was found alone in a burning wreck 15 mins from home on a road she seldom travled without any of her daily necessities...for me it all points to someone who was consumed with the thought of killing themselves, and who succeeded at it after contemplating the various ways.

What got me here was thinking about water. Why was there water in the tub? Why was a hose running out back? My immeidate thought was of killers who leave tubs/sinks running. But immediately after that I thought about the iron being on.

She was thinking about electrocuting herself.

Maybe she was trying to figure out how to do it the quickest way? How to make it look most like an accident?

I think Ayleen was tormented and consumed with the thought of killing herself. For whatever reason. It was occupying her mind that morning heavily, she had taken the phone off the hook as she had already made her separation with life in her mind. After debating a few different ways, she hurriedly went out of her house and into her car and sped off to do it a way she knew would work. I think its important her purse was left at home because she knew she wouldn't need it, she wasn't coming back. She drove off, headed into unfamiliar territory as she headed off into REAL unfamiliar territory.


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5. Granted Ayleen might not have cared about too much if she was going to committ suicide, but why leave the good possibility of leaving your house susceptible to being burnt or burglaized, why put your husband and many kids throught that?
I really don't think anyone's actions up to the point that they end their own life, can ever be examined by others afterward as eminating from someone with a sound, rational mind.
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Old 10-13-2007, 12:12 AM   #53
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I have a hard time buying the suicide angle in this one. Can't explain why right now but I've watched this case numerous times and have a real hard time buying the suicide angle. I mean from what Corky says its possible but I dunno it just doesn't shake out with me although very little about this case makes sense.
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Old 10-13-2007, 12:35 AM   #54
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And I take back my original hypothesis which was formulated without knowing that the car had crashed, only that it was set aflame.

My new theory is that Ayleen commited suicide.
I'm not sure about this. First off, crashing a car doesn't seem all that reliable under the circumstances. I mean, what if she survived and ended up a vegetable? Second, if she was that hell bent on killing herself on that day, one might think that her family would have noticed changes in her behavior prior to all this. Your theory suggests some pretty extreme behavior on her part that morning. That being said, its hard to imagine there not being warning signs that would have been noticed by someone. The overall problem with this too is that we don't have a psychological profile. There just isn't that much info given about Ayleen in the segment to jump to a conclusion like this. There is nothing wrong with thinking outside the box, but there were no facts presented in the segment indicating that Ayleen was depressed, or suicidal. I believe that any thorough analysis of this case should stick to the facts we know to be true. For example, I could probably make a case that aliens killed Ayleen. Hell, she could have been dialing the UFO hotline to report it when they zapped her away. Very lame humor aside, I think sticking to facts is key to this, and we don't have one iotta of proof that she was suicidal.
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Old 10-13-2007, 04:40 AM   #55
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But that's just it --- one vehicle that doesn't belong is likely to be ignored or not noticed. Two starts to become something people take note of. Three? Hard to believe there were no witnesses to three out-of-neighborhood cars hanging around the Conway residence.
not necessarily, my friend. The only reason that the two vehicles in the Annie Laurie Hearin segment were tagged as out of place because they were a van and a truck in a neighborhood where the typical vehicle is a luxury car. If the burglars bring cars that are more in line with what the neighborhood owns, they don't come off automatically as suspcious, they just seem like ordinary cars. Additionally, I pay no attention to what my neighbors drive, so I wouldn't immediately recognize a car if it was not from the area. If you have 3 regular cars, spaced far enough apart in the neighborhood, it's something people might not necessarily latch onto right away.
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Old 10-13-2007, 08:17 AM   #56
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I'm not sure about this. First off, crashing a car doesn't seem all that reliable under the circumstances. I mean, what if she survived and ended up a vegetable? Second, if she was that hell bent on killing herself on that day, one might think that her family would have noticed changes in her behavior prior to all this. Your theory suggests some pretty extreme behavior on her part that morning. That being said, its hard to imagine there not being warning signs that would have been noticed by someone. The overall problem with this too is that we don't have a psychological profile. There just isn't that much info given about Ayleen in the segment to jump to a conclusion like this. There is nothing wrong with thinking outside the box, but there were no facts presented in the segment indicating that Ayleen was depressed, or suicidal. I believe that any thorough analysis of this case should stick to the facts we know to be true. For example, I could probably make a case that aliens killed Ayleen. Hell, she could have been dialing the UFO hotline to report it when they zapped her away. Very lame humor aside, I think sticking to facts is key to this, and we don't have one iotta of proof that she was suicidal.
my thoughts exactly, Justin.

Car crasing is completely unreliable, and she ran the risk of of seriously injuring herself but still being alive, which I'm sure she didn't want. Any number of undesirable things could have happened to her if she failed: burns, blindness, etc. It makes her life worse off than what it was (don't mean to imply it was bad to begin with).

The state of the house that it was in suggest to me she was interrupted by someone or something. As I mentioned before, I'm doubting that Ayleen just spontaneously decided to end her life in the midst of all these activities, it is usually more carefully planned out like that. Plus, people that commit suicide usually go through in their mind how they're going to do it, and don't wait until the last minute to decide. If she did want to commit suicide, there were several ways in the house she could have done it: drowning: they say it's like God giving you a giant wet hug forever, or she could have had a little antifreeze to go with that sandwich.
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Old 10-15-2007, 03:56 PM   #57
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I know my theory makes a quantum leap from A to B but I think it incorporates the known facts, as UM conveyed them, very well. I acknowledge that we have no idea of her mind state, no idea if she was unhappy, and no idea what the investigative officials affiliated with the case think...but simply because her husband nor Robert Stack make any mention of her being depressed or suicidal, that doesn't mean she absolutely wasn't. As we saw with the Dr. Sneha Phillips segment, families can choose to portray their loved ones however they want and the show may go along with that. But there I go inventing scenarios again.

Like I said previously, my first opinion was that she was attacked in her home and kidnapped. But that was before I understood that the car had been in an accident. Knowing this as well as knowing that there were skidmarks, which I think is a critical point, I now think anyone else's involvement in Ayleen Conway's death is very highly unlikely.
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Old 10-15-2007, 04:11 PM   #58
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I noticed there was no suicide note: why not leave one? Since any problems Ayleen had would have been ended with the suicide, there doesn't appear to be any reason not to leave one.
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Old 10-15-2007, 04:29 PM   #59
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I know my theory makes a quantum leap from A to B but I think it incorporates the known facts, as UM conveyed them, very well. I acknowledge that we have no idea of her mind state, no idea if she was unhappy, and no idea what the investigative officials affiliated with the case think...but simply because her husband nor Robert Stack make any mention of her being depressed or suicidal, that doesn't mean she absolutely wasn't. As we saw with the Dr. Sneha Phillips segment, families can choose to portray their loved ones however they want and the show may go along with that. But there I go inventing scenarios again.

Like I said previously, my first opinion was that she was attacked in her home and kidnapped. But that was before I understood that the car had been in an accident. Knowing this as well as knowing that there were skidmarks, which I think is a critical point, I now think anyone else's involvement in Ayleen Conway's death is very highly unlikely.
Corky, you've very nearly reached the same conclusion I did. Now, you just need to make that final leap and realize suicide is also highly unlikely. In another segment, it was mentioned that in the state of Colorado as recently as the 1980s, there were only 3 recorded cases of vehicular suicide. Ayleen didn't live in Colorado, of course, but it seems to me that vehicular suicide is an extraordinarily rare method of killing oneself for reasons I and others have already mentioned (why take the risk of "just" becoming a vegetable instead of dying, which is very, very real). If one WAS determined to kill oneself in a car, a place like Colorado, what with all its cliffs and steep drops offs, is the kind of place to do it --- not so much a straightaway where you are depending on simply crashing into a railing at 50-60mph (and not a 100 foot drop) to be enough to kill you. Remmeber --- it's not even clear Ayleen died as a result of the crash. She may have simply burned to death.

That said, the involvement of other people IS highly improbable, given the physical evidence at the scene. What does that leave? A pure accident, which might be further explained by some extenuating circumstances, such as a concomitant medical emergency. This concomitant medical emergency would also easily explain why she appeared to leave the house in such a hurry, and provides a mostly graceful if tragic answer to most of the mysterious elements of this case.
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Old 08-19-2008, 12:06 AM   #60
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mozartpc -

First off, let me just say that this is the BEST post I have read on here.

Second, I really think you are on to something, and you have even changed my way of thinking. I never before considered the skidmarks. The fact that they were there indicates that someone was stepping on the brakes, and I think it is reasonable to assume that someone was Aileen. That being said, this IS clearly a traffic accident and nothing more. What was she doing out there? Who knows. I've always wondered if she could have been leading a double-life (IE. cheating on her husband).

Are you sure Stack et al. said "skidmarks" though? I don't remember this from the segment. Granted I have not watched it in some time, but I do remember them saying there was evidence of where the car left the road. I'm not sure beyond that...
Mozartpc's post is one of the finest of all time on here which is high praise considering the quality of posting on this forum. That post certainly convinced me that this was likely an accident. I too wondered whether Ayleen (or is Aileen?) wasn't leading some kind of double life. I know that her husband and family would prefer this not to be the case and would, understandably, not want to consider this possibility but perhaps she was doing something that they were unaware of. As for the skidmarks, they are mentioned at the 1:10 mark of the segment. I never picked up on this at all but that was an excellent catch by Mozartpc and certainly a critical one.
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